News that is anti-sensational?
“Over 40% of adults under 65 with private insurance could be indicated for a GLP-1 drug”
I am cynical when it comes to news – it so often exaggerates and makes sensational claims. In fact I haven’t watched a single news program in five years. I get enough from my daily 1440 news email (just facts, no emotions). But, because I hang out on LinkedIn (when I can handle the emotional drain of social media), and I’m deeply immersed in the field of Obesity Medicine, I get served a bunch of news stories related to obesity medicine. More often than not, it’s full of hype.
It’s rare that I read a piece and think to myself, “That reporter is underestimating the impact or underreporting the numbers.” This is one of those times. I know that reporters have to work with facts. Technically, the statement “over 40%” is accurate. And it’s pretty sensational. However, it’s likely coming from claims data – which only reflects patients with a diagnosis of obesity in their medical records. The diagnosis of obesity is vastly underreported in medical records. And pre-obesity (overweight) is rarely reported – except in cases when someone is trying to get an anti-obesity medication covered. Let’s dig in a bit:
GLP-1 drugs are currently FDA-approved for three distinct populations:
1) patients with type 2 diabetes
2) patients with obesity (BMI of 30 or more)
3) patients with pre-obesity (BMI 27-29) and one or more weight-related health conditions
** This includes recent FDA approval to reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with established CVD and obesity/pre-obesity
42% of the adult population in the US has obesity
Another 31% or so have pre-obesity
60% (60/100) US adults have at least one chronic condition (that can be classified as a weight-related condition). Even if every one of the people with obesity has one (which they don’t), that still leaves 18 without obesity with at least one chronic condition. Even if only half of those are in people with pre-obesity (the other half occurring in people with normal weight), that’s still an additional 9%. 9% + 42% = 51% – and those are using some very conservative estimates
There are currently 72 diseases being studied in the GLP-1 pipeline. There are hundreds of clinical trials underway trying to prove that GLP-1 medications can prevent or improve 72 different disease states – from fatty liver to Alzheimer’s disease to alcohol use disorder.
Given that significant weight loss (in someone with excess weight) typically results in health improvement in a wide array of organ systems, it’s safe to assume that at least half of these disease states will be improved in the trials.
It’s only a matter of time before these drugs are going to be FDA-approved to treat almost everyone with pre-obesity – a number that is rising each year.
The economic impact of these drugs is phenomenal. Are we prepared for it?